The next Federal election is still two years away, but if there was an election today , Sault Ste. Marie would vote Conservative. That according to 338 Canada, a national independently owned media website about politics, polling and electoral projections. It was created and is still managed by P.J.Fournier
According to recent polling, 338 Canada predicts a Conservative win for the Sault Ste. Marie riding. Keep in mind, the Sault riding does not have a candidate announced yet for the 2025 Federal election.
These numbers are merely projections at this point.
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data, according to the website.
There’s almost no chance of a federal election being called prior to the planned October 2025 election. The Liberals and the NDP formed a coalition to stay in power for the entire term. However, the Election appears to be in full gear with Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre making campaign-style tours across Canada. The Conservatives have also launched election -type advertising.
338 Canada predicts a 98% chance of a Conservative candidate taking the Sault riding now served by Liberal Terry Sheehan. A seat Sheehan has held since 2015. In 2015, Liberals had a 44.8% of the vote. That fell to 37.8% in the last Federal election in 2021.
338 Canada predicts the outcome (if an election was held today) Conservatives 44 % plus 8 points. Liberals at 32% down 7 points and the NDP at 19% down 6 points. The PPC party at just 3%.
The Sault Ste. Marie Provincial riding is currently held by Conservative Ross Romano.